In this Quarterly Essay (available free on Audible!), journalist Megalogenis unpacks the world of Australian politics as we plunge forward to our next federal election in 2025. It’s clear, as one looks at elections around the world, that the rules of the past in elections are gone. Polls no longer reliably predict winners. Incumbents no longer reliably get second terms. People don’t vote in blocks like they used to, and single-issue parties and politics are taking hold. It’s a fascinating (if terrifying) time to be alive.
In this quarterly essay, Megalogenis tries to unpack this trend. To explain how and why the political world has changed. The premise is largely that there is a desperate need for the electorate to get comfortable with the concept of minority government. For those who don’t have a Westminster system like Australia, a minority government is what is formed when no single party wins a clear majority. Instead, a minority government forms: a tenuous arrangement between the majority and minor parties/independents – enough to get the numbers to hack together a majority. It’s relies on personality politics and messy deals, and invariably leads to slow government progress.
But it also forces the major parties to engage with the electorate in a way they usually are not forced to, which is not always a bad thing.
Though there are many factors unpicked in this essay to explain how things got here, the most glaring seems to be data on immigration. Australia is an extremely multicultural nation, but you wouldn’t know that when you look at our male, pale, and stale elected officials. Parties are failing to win majorities, or retain governments, because they are failing to inspire and win over immigrant voters. Compulsory voting exists in Australia after all – literally everyone gets a say (whether you like it or not). There’s no electoral college. It makes for a difficult task, which the major parties so far have failed navigate with skill.
Though the essay focusses on Australian politics, I’d say this topic has broader application. I’d recommend it to anyone who is struggling to understand how politics has changed, and will continue to change, over the next decade. And it helps that it’s free on Audible.
Overall, 5 tone deaf vacations to Hawaii out of 5.